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The poetics of Collapse: a new way of expressing our predicament; #1, 1.5 degrees is more than you think, and warming is accelerating

HIGHLIGHTS

1. We have practically reached 1.5 degrees of warming already.

2. How can you prepare for a 60 degree heat event? Would you even survive?

3. Your wife or husband may leave you for someone who can keep cooler for longer.

4. Your hypocrisy will feel intolerable, almost to the point of suicide.

5. One day you will scrabble around in the soil as you finally realize what is happening, looking for something cool and reasonable to reassure you.

My dear, dear reader.

Let us discuss the contemporary human predicament, and for now, let us just focus on climate. Moreover, I just want to focus on the 1.5 degree warming limit aimed for by the so-called Paris Agreement. (There was an agreement. It was in Paris. But that is all you need to know. It was useless in curbing the climate catastrophe to any significant degree.)

Some responsible scientists note that we have practically reached 1.5 degrees of warming already, now, in 2026. For example Tad Patzek, Kevin Anderson, Bill McGuire and James Hansen. The conservative consensus of the politically-driven IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) of the United Nations, has proclaimed that 1.5 degrees can only be declared after it has been averaged over 20 years. However, since man-made climate change is probably accelerating (research the scientists above), by the time the 1.5 degree average is declared by the IPCC, global warming will have reached nearer 2 degrees, year on year. And by the time 2 degrees of average global warming is declared, it will actually be nearer 3 degrees, and so on. Do not be lulled into a deathly sleep by the IPCC and the self-serving politicians served by them.

How old will you be in 20 years? It would be prudent to imagine the likely 2 degrees of warming in 2045 and its potential impacts on your life, and it would be prudent to start to prepare now for those impacts, for they will not be slight. Averages of global warming are primarily given for the planet as a whole, but warming over land (where humans live) is always higher than the land-ocean average. A conservative estimate is that 2 degrees of global warming translates to at least 3 degrees of warming over land. Moreover, this warming is not evenly distributed, even over land. Both Europe (where I am from) and Canada (where I live) are warming twice as fast as the global average. So, if you live in these places, (and some select other places) imagine an average of 6 degrees of warming over land, in 2045 (a very reasonable scenario, all things considered). But it gets worse. The bell curve of statistically probable temperatures is shifting towards the hotter end of the spectrum as a whole: this means that rare heat extremes which, for example, due to the current Super El Niño, in Europe are now spiking to around 40 degrees, from an average June high of around 30 degrees, will be several degrees hotter than today. Moreover, as baseline global warming increases, scientists are observing that temperature spikes are increasingly exponentially. So the famous temperature spike of 25 degrees-above-average in Lytton, British Columbia, during the North American heat dome of June 2021, taking the temperature to 49 degrees, if mirrored in 2045 (from a baseline average of 30, instead of 24) could result in an exponentially bigger spike of, for example, 30 degrees, resulting in a 60 degree temperature event. This is not unreasonable conjecture, but is within the likely range of scenarios. Even 55 degrees would be catastrophic enough, I am sure you agree.

How can you prepare for a 60 degree heat event? Would you even survive? Maybe you would if it happened now, but how about when you are twenty years older? And what about your children?

No amount of reasoning can help us now. All I can appeal to, is your greed, and your fear (my greed, my fear) and Heaven help us, our sense of poetry. Centre of the Web is a global platform, but since its readers are so far mostly from so-called developed countries, I aim this post mainly at you.

You will crave after those fond memories of swims in lakes with your family, followed by ice-creams and board games. You will feel compelled to swim in lakes in all seasons, to somehow make yourself tough enough (though you will not really understand why you are doing this), and the board games you play will tend towards the kind that attempt to teach survival skills.

You will, pathetically, be more and more proud of the less and less valuable things you own, and become impressively more strategic in how you plan to sell them. Many of your cutting edge gadgets will cease to function in 50 degrees of heat, as will your shares in the companies that produce such gadgets.

Your wife or husband may leave you for someone who can keep cooler for longer. You must understand, times will become desperate; it is for the sake of your children.

Your liberal-left attitudes towards immigration will harden into hard right attitudes, as the Global South capitalizes on the acclerated warming in the North, engaging in long, drawn-out economic hit-and-runs. Unconsciously, you will sympathize with the raiders. Your hypocrisy will feel intolerable, almost to the point of suicide (and for some, to the point of suicide).

Even when things become hellish, you will attempt to continue with your daily routine, as if nothing extraordinary is happening. You will keep going to the gym despite the extravagent expense and its drain on electricity, and the smashing of gym equipment by local activists. Only the neonazis taking over will finally convince you to renounce your membership. You will only be mildly surprised when your clubcard membership to various other outlets suddenly becomes null and void, on account of the mass bankruptcy of those outlets, due to heat-induced supply chain failures.

Finally, you will be upset, very upset, when your favourite butterfly suddenly goes extinct, in the space of a single season. At this, and only this, you will cry your eyes out….One day you will scrabble around in the soil as you finally realize what is happening, looking for something cool and reasonable to reassure you, to grab onto. You will unearth only an odd piece of plastic, and you will stare at it for an eternity, expressing perfectly how powerless and divorced from nature you feel…

Of course, if you somehow manage to change direction in your life, in an extraordinary way, before all of this unfolds, and if enough other people do the same, a small percentage of these kinds of outcomes may be partly avoidable or subvertable into a less dark kind of poetics, as represented in your thoughts, the stories you tell to yourself and your friends, the posts you post on decrepit social media platforms, and so on. I wish this for you, more than anything in the world. I really, really do.

*******

#WriteCollapse #写社会崩溃 #붕괴에대해쓰다

My name is Matthew Azuley, and I am the founding editor of Centre of the Web. I am also the editor of the globally diverse anthology Climate Collapse? Calls to Action from Around the World, published by Arkbound in the UK.

Ecology of the absurd, Featured blogs, sites & lit works, FLASH!, Popular & established authors, USA

Jeanine Didn’t Want to Add One More Sound to The World

By Nina Hart: This story originally appeared in the book of short stories, Somewhere in a Town You Never Knew Existed Somewhere

Out stepped Jeanine. Out into the street after slamming her car door shut. Jeanine. Her upper back jumping from the sound of the slam. Jeanine’s right thumb reaching for the lock button on the car’s keyless device. Jeanine’s sharply manicured thumb about to press down to emit the piercing beep sound that signaled the locking of the doors. She paused though. She could not hit the button. She could not press that button. Because she didn’t want to add one more sound to the world. She wondered What will the birds think? She did this for the birds. She didn’t want to hurt their ears or obstruct their songs. Obstruct their signals to one another. So Jeanine left her car doors unlocked. She even left the doors of her red Pontiac Bonneville wide open on their hinges and all the baby bird chirps came in. Like waves she loved the chirping sounds of no sound no sound no sound coming through like a whale in the wilderness of junkyard love. No sound no sound no sound she said no sound.
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Origins of the climate movement (extracts from an upcoming book by Tadzio Mueller: #4)

Republished with permission from the blog of Tadzio Mueller, Peaceful Sabotage

Note: this repost continues from the last extract from Tadzio`s upcoming book published on COTW here. Tadzio is happy to receive feedback from activists all over the world. Visit his website for more details.

Capable of taking action in the face of the climate catastrophe?

…But after the frustration of the anti-war movement, I didn’t go directly into activism. Instead, I returned to university, where I had the enormous luck and privilege of writing my dissertation on anti-capitalist activism within the anti-globalization movement—essentially a critical retrospective, a strategic debrief on the movement that had so profoundly changed my life and, at least a little, the world. The research question was essentially: what means do we “anti-capitalists” in the anti-globalization and other movements actually use to fight our great enemy, the final boss, whom we hold responsible for so much of the world’s evil, and how effective are these means?

When I finally finished my dissertation in the autumn of 2006, not only was I finished with university, but the world was also finished with the anti-globalization movement: one of our last major actions in the Global North was the attempt to disrupt the G8 summit in Gleneagles, Scotland. But while a few hundred or a few thousand radical leftists were chased through the Scottish Highlands by well-organized police, the vast majority of people who had come to Scotland to protest were not demonstrating against the G8, but rather under the banner of “Make Poverty History” for an expansion of the powers of precisely those multilateral political-economic institutions whose delegitimization had been one of the central strategies of our movement. The radical wing isolated, the moderate wing co-opted (integrated into the power project), the British government transformed from antagonist of the movement into its tamer: the movement was dead .

Long live the movement!

And what do people do for whom “movement” and “struggle” are central parts of their identity, what do “activists” do when a movement, when their movement ends? Of course, some of us then go home for good, start some well-paid or overly demanding job, have two, three, many children – but for activist self-efficacy junkies like me, it was clear that it had to continue with a new movement. Cold turkey – brrrr, absolutely not.

Fortunately, our British comrades had already shown a way out of the now irrelevant anti-neoliberal globalization movement: while the black-red wing of the movement, to which I belonged, was still preoccupied with the major global summits in 2005, having been convinced in Seattle that these were the key levers on which to apply our limited energies to achieve maximum change, and therefore mobilized for Gleneagles, the influential eco-anarchist wing in the UK had long since abandoned this idea, this illusion, and was instead planning the first “climate camp.” At the end of August 2006, precisely when I was sitting at my desk in Brighton finishing my dissertation on a movement that was by then no longer relevant, a new cycle of social struggles, a new social movement, began at the first Camp for Climate Action at the Drax coal-fired power station , the largest CO2 emitter in the UK: we would later come to know it as the “climate movement.”

2007 wasn’t just the year of my gay coming out and move to the queer-hedonistic mecca of Berlin; it was also the year of my personal climate conversion. Like many German leftists and radical leftists, I had previously held an absurdly arrogant attitude towards anything that even remotely resembled an “environmental issue.” I thought, as many leftists still do, that environmental issues were privileged, bourgeois feel-good nonsense, that environmental issues were about cute megafauna like polar bears and turtles, maybe trees, perhaps a little bit about agriculture, but that the truly important issues were the classic leftist themes: control of the means of production, class struggle, redistribution, socialization, etc. Without ever having really engaged with them, I had internalized the anti-ecological leftist prejudice that the real leftist issues were about people, about exploitation versus liberation, while environmental issues were luxury topics to be addressed sometime after the revolution.

The climate question

The mid-2000s, when the world’s first climate agreement came into force (the now justifiably largely forgotten “Kyoto Protocol”), when a climate policy slide show by a former US Vice President won the Oscar for Best Documentary, was also the time when the Global North, in the context of increasingly escalating climate catastrophe consequences, slowly began to take the climate issue seriously. Hurricane Katrina, which struck New Orleans in August 2005, played a particularly important role here: until then, the wealthy world (myself included, as a scion of the cosmopolitan upper middle class) had happily indulged in the illusion that the climate catastrophe was a “somewhere, sometime” problem. But when the richest and most powerful country in the world experienced an “environmental catastrophe” that, due to historical racial and class-based injustices, immediately manifested itself as a social catastrophe as well, when Mexican troops entered Texas to provide food for evacuees When George W. Bush and his Republicans suffered a crushing defeat in the 2006 midterm elections, partly because they had so disastrously botched the disaster response , and especially because all of this took place in the USA, where the rest of the West can always see a bit of its own future – it began to become clear to the rich world that this “climate change” had probably received too little attention so far.

Institutions like the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund began talking about “green loans,” positioning themselves, after years of quite effective delegitimization by our movement, as the institutions that could finance and enable a global ” green transition .” And when, in 2007, during what was truly the last major anti-globalization action in Europe, at the G8 summit in Heiligendamm, the brilliant political tactician Angela Merkel actually managed to completely thwart our summit blockades by positioning the G8 not as the neoliberal governess of the world, but as a globally solidarity-based institution of savvy climate saviors, I began for the first time to recognize the world-changing relevance of the issue. Initially, not because I considered the topic important myself, but because I understood that our old adversaries – the global institutions and factions of capital that had driven the project of “neoliberal globalization” – were beginning to reorient themselves, adopting a new rhetoric in the midst of the emerging major crisis of capitalism: “Look, we are no longer evil neoliberals; we recognize that a potential catastrophe is looming, and we will not only solve it, we will use the energy it releases to unleash a new, enlightened, sustainable, green growth cycle that can pull us out of the deepest global economic crisis since the Great Depression .”

The climate movement…

So I began to engage with the climate issue both activistically and academically, and I quickly got the impression that it could be a bigger deal than I had previously understood. A number of German activists participated in the 2nd Climate Camp (Camp for Climate Action) in the summer of 2007, and we were so enthusiastic about this form of action that we decided to organize the first climate camp in Germany in 2008, which then took place in Hamburg-Moorburg as the first German “Anti-Racist and Climate Camp.” From there, we moved on to the “Copenhagen Mobilization,” when the emerging activist climate movement, along with pretty much the rest of the world, pinned its hopes on the possibility that success at the COP15 climate summit in Copenhagen could somehow influence the already rapidly escalating “climate change.” But as some of you may remember, the summit flopped, as did the large demonstrations and actions that took place around and against it , and after 2009 things became pretty quiet around the climate issue. From 2010 to 2015, the young, primarily left-wing radical climate movement plodded along rather unnoticed in the coal-mining regions, trying to pull new levers after the summit… and nobody gave a fuck.

Collapse chats & diaries, Ecology of the absurd, Exclusive to COTW

I hope this summer is catastrophically hot because fuck you, and fuck them

Part of me hopes that this summer is catastrophically hot because fuck you, and fuck them. It is just that I want you, I want them, to wake up to the unfolding reality of climate collapse. I am not an accelerationist, but sometimes I get profoundly frustrated.

Of course, in my better moments, actually the majority of the time, I do not think the above. But it does not matter what I think. According to James Hansen et al, who is usually proved right, 2026 is likely to be the hottest year on record, with 2027 being even hotter. Sure, this is confused and compounded by a Super El Nino, but that is no reason for complacency: the Super El Nino itself is suspiciously strong, shaping up to be the strongest we have had in 140 years, apparently. How will this affect so-called climate tipping points? Nobody knows for sure, but it does not look good.

Some climate scientists, I have observed, have started to dispense with academic formalities in their science communications, in an attempt to get through to the indolent masses, and make it clear that they don`t share the consensus of the tepid climate science mainstream, which often underestimates or underemphasizes the extent of the climate threats now facing us as a planet. James Hansen is a good example. His scientific papers are these days peppered with irreverant swipes towards the climate science establishment as well as some daily English expressions of the sheer mind-boggling severity of the unfolding climate catastrophe. Bill McGuire is another good example. Bill, a socialist activist as well as climate scientist, recently released The Fate of the World.

Every kind of communication on the severity of the climate crisis has been tried by scientists, activists and social movements, from the scientific, to the optimistic, to the brutally honest and deliberately shocking (hence the title of this post). None of it seems to work, The global population in general isn`t ready to hear it, or is generally either too economically comfortable or too mired in socio-economic problems to which climate collapse is closely related. Consequently, we drift towards various unpalatable futures: war, civilizational Collapse, or bloody coups and revolutions. None of these outcomes are welcome, but we may have to deal with all of them, to varying degrees at different stages of our lives, depending on where we live in the world and how old we are.

Yet, there will always be pockets of humanity committed to thriving and helping others to thrive. This has become my strongest vision and my most important work.