Canada, Collapse chats & diaries, Ecology of the absurd, Exclusive to COTW, Reflections

The poetics of Collapse: a new way of expressing our predicament; #1, 1.5 degrees is more than you think, and warming is accelerating

HIGHLIGHTS

1. We have practically reached 1.5 degrees of warming already.

2. How can you prepare for a 60 degree heat event? Would you even survive?

3. Your wife or husband may leave you for someone who can keep cooler for longer.

4. Your hypocrisy will feel intolerable, almost to the point of suicide.

5. One day you will scrabble around in the soil as you finally realize what is happening, looking for something cool and reasonable to reassure you.

My dear, dear reader.

Let us discuss the contemporary human predicament, and for now, let us just focus on climate. Moreover, I just want to focus on the 1.5 degree warming limit aimed for by the so-called Paris Agreement. (There was an agreement. It was in Paris. But that is all you need to know. It was useless in curbing the climate catastrophe to any significant degree.)

Some responsible scientists note that we have practically reached 1.5 degrees of warming already, now, in 2026. For example Tad Patzek, Kevin Anderson, Bill McGuire and James Hansen. The conservative consensus of the politically-driven IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) of the United Nations, has proclaimed that 1.5 degrees can only be declared after it has been averaged over 20 years. However, since man-made climate change is probably accelerating (research the scientists above), by the time the 1.5 degree average is declared by the IPCC, global warming will have reached nearer 2 degrees, year on year. And by the time 2 degrees of average global warming is declared, it will actually be nearer 3 degrees, and so on. Do not be lulled into a deathly sleep by the IPCC and the self-serving politicians served by them.

How old will you be in 20 years? It would be prudent to imagine the likely 2 degrees of warming in 2045 and its potential impacts on your life, and it would be prudent to start to prepare now for those impacts, for they will not be slight. Averages of global warming are primarily given for the planet as a whole, but warming over land (where humans live) is always higher than the land-ocean average. A conservative estimate is that 2 degrees of global warming translates to at least 3 degrees of warming over land. Moreover, this warming is not evenly distributed, even over land. Both Europe (where I am from) and Canada (where I live) are warming twice as fast as the global average. So, if you live in these places, (and some select other places) imagine an average of 6 degrees of warming over land, in 2045 (a very reasonable scenario, all things considered). But it gets worse. The bell curve of statistically probable temperatures is shifting towards the hotter end of the spectrum as a whole: this means that rare heat extremes which, for example, due to the current Super El Niño, in Europe are now spiking to around 40 degrees, from an average June high of around 30 degrees, will be several degrees hotter than today. Moreover, as baseline global warming increases, scientists are observing that temperature spikes are increasingly exponentially. So the famous temperature spike of 25 degrees-above-average in Lytton, British Columbia, during the North American heat dome of June 2021, taking the temperature to 49 degrees, if mirrored in 2045 (from a baseline average of 30, instead of 24) could result in an exponentially bigger spike of, for example, 30 degrees, resulting in a 60 degree temperature event. This is not unreasonable conjecture, but is within the likely range of scenarios. Even 55 degrees would be catastrophic enough, I am sure you agree.

How can you prepare for a 60 degree heat event? Would you even survive? Maybe you would if it happened now, but how about when you are twenty years older? And what about your children?

No amount of reasoning can help us now. All I can appeal to, is your greed, and your fear (my greed, my fear) and Heaven help us, our sense of poetry. Centre of the Web is a global platform, but since its readers are so far mostly from so-called developed countries, I aim this post mainly at you.

You will crave after those fond memories of swims in lakes with your family, followed by ice-creams and board games. You will feel compelled to swim in lakes in all seasons, to somehow make yourself tough enough (though you will not really understand why you are doing this), and the board games you play will tend towards the kind that attempt to teach survival skills.

You will, pathetically, be more and more proud of the less and less valuable things you own, and become impressively more strategic in how you plan to sell them. Many of your cutting edge gadgets will cease to function in 50 degrees of heat, as will your shares in the companies that produce such gadgets.

Your wife or husband may leave you for someone who can keep cooler for longer. You must understand, times will become desperate; it is for the sake of your children.

Your liberal-left attitudes towards immigration will harden into hard right attitudes, as the Global South capitalizes on the acclerated warming in the North, engaging in long, drawn-out economic hit-and-runs. Unconsciously, you will sympathize with the raiders. Your hypocrisy will feel intolerable, almost to the point of suicide (and for some, to the point of suicide).

Even when things become hellish, you will attempt to continue with your daily routine, as if nothing extraordinary is happening. You will keep going to the gym despite the extravagent expense and its drain on electricity, and the smashing of gym equipment by local activists. Only the neonazis taking over will finally convince you to renounce your membership. You will only be mildly surprised when your clubcard membership to various other outlets suddenly becomes null and void, on account of the mass bankruptcy of those outlets, due to heat-induced supply chain failures.

Finally, you will be upset, very upset, when your favourite butterfly suddenly goes extinct, in the space of a single season. At this, and only this, you will cry your eyes out….One day you will scrabble around in the soil as you finally realize what is happening, looking for something cool and reasonable to reassure you, to grab onto. You will unearth only an odd piece of plastic, and you will stare at it for an eternity, expressing perfectly how powerless and divorced from nature you feel…

Of course, if you somehow manage to change direction in your life, in an extraordinary way, before all of this unfolds, and if enough other people do the same, a small percentage of these kinds of outcomes may be partly avoidable or subvertable into a less dark kind of poetics, as represented in your thoughts, the stories you tell to yourself and your friends, the posts you post on decrepit social media platforms, and so on. I wish this for you, more than anything in the world. I really, really do.

*******

#WriteCollapse #写社会崩溃 #붕괴에대해쓰다

My name is Matthew Azuley, and I am the founding editor of Centre of the Web. I am also the editor of the globally diverse anthology Climate Collapse? Calls to Action from Around the World, published by Arkbound in the UK.

Canada, Collapse chats & diaries, DIARIES & MEMOIRS: COUNTRIES A-Z, Reflections

Fresh, harder times ahead

Arguments with my wife. Arguments with myself. Arguments with the past, present and future. But then there was some kind of movement. And here I am. In a new city, fresh; on a new continent, fresh. Sat in a booth in the corner of some kind of conference room. One light broke, the other one shining me up askew. Working on my stuff. I was here a few days ago too, but that was before all the argument. I’m here as if for the first time. Actually talking to people. Having things to say. And whatever I went through earlier, I know there will be much harder times ahead.

Originally published in the Schemattic digital garden

Canada, Exclusive to COTW, Reflections

About shame

Submitted to COTW anonymously from QC, Canada; translated from the French using ChatGPT

Shame is the emotion associated with the feeling of being inadequate, defective, or unworthy of belonging to the group. A painful, even debilitating emotion, it is fundamentally social in nature. From as early as age 3–5, it brands with a hot iron the behaviors deemed socially reprehensible. It is the ultimate physiological punishment for having “acted wrongly.” The sentence: exclusion from the group and the anticipated loss of one’s humanity. For the nervous system of a social animal, exile is death. Shame, therefore, is the feeling of imminent death. No wonder we constantly pass it around like a hot potato — both a source of power when imposed on others (symbolic murder) and a source of deep suffering when endured ourselves (living is killing me).

The physical consequence of shame is the inhibition of the motor system, the protection of internal organs (shoulders curving inward), and a painful tightening in the chest or stomach. The internal message is: if I keep acting, I will die. In its primary function, shame is essential to social regulation. It is likely the first regulator of our instinctive violence. We will all experience shame many times throughout our lives. As long as it is felt occasionally, in response to deviant, violent, or destructive behaviors, it is an emotion that has its place in the normal conditioning of human beings.

Shame becomes problematic when it is experienced systematically, with no symbolic possibility of correction, repair, or lasting return to inclusion. When one endures shame continuously, one ends up living in a state of constant chronic stress. Cortisol, at high doses and for long periods of time, becomes neurotoxic. Executive functions diminish, as does our capacity to self-regulate and return to a “rest and digest” state. In some cases, it kills. At best, it generates trauma.

As with any stressor, the nervous system will typically seek a fight-or-flight response to cope. When physical escape from the shame-generating environment is impossible — or when shame has become internalized and follows us wherever we go — two other options arise: chemical regulation (drugs) and/or dissociation (inhibition of the circuits associated with pain and emotion). On the “fight” side, it is generally through contempt or violence that one seeks to silence shame. Contempt is the psychological belittling of the person generating shame — in other words, the externalization of shame: It’s not me who should be ashamed — it’s you. Violence is the desire to subjugate, psychologically or physically, the perceived source of one’s shame: If you disappear, I will no longer feel ashamed. All of these strategies temporarily dispel the feeling of shame, but if the source of shame is not addressed and resolved, the pendulum almost inevitably swings back.

This duality of shame and contempt/violence may be at the root of the worst facets of human experience. It is a self-fueling pendulum, naturally and indefinitely oscillating between one state and the other, as long as the underlying issue — internal or external — remains unresolved. When two shame-carrying individuals live in close proximity, their pendulums tend to synchronize.

Sometimes the pendulum stays in relative equilibrium, sometimes for many years, with each party managing to counteract the other’s contempt in a roughly symmetrical way. These are painful, loveless partnerships, but relatively functional ones — not without their good moments, between each swing of the pendulum, when both parties find themselves at a standstill.

One day, however, in such dynamics, a vulnerability appears: one party cracks, asks for forgiveness, and promises to change. The pendulum, established over years, will not stop for that. This time, contempt will meet vulnerability, driving a little deeper with each swing. Contempt — the antithesis of shame, or rather, externalized shame — is strangely addictive. It confers a sense of power on the one who expresses it. Left unchecked, it tends to grow, naturally escalating into violence.

Eventually, the party in the weaker position within this dynamic will seek to flee, appease, or retaliate. Flight, without external support, will not always be possible, or at least not immediately. Flight also means the unknown. Letting go of familiar bearings, even unhealthy ones, is always a painful experience. Appeasement works in the short term, calming the aggressor’s impulses, but at the same time, by avoiding conflict, legitimizes them. Retaliation, costly in energy, becomes increasingly difficult as the victim’s resources are depleted. The experience of violence, and the shame that follows from it, is inherently incapacitating and traumatic.

It is generally through a combination of these strategies that the victimized party manages to extract themselves from the dynamic. If sufficient distance is achieved and an adequate support network exists, and with appropriate psychological help, each party’s pendulum will gradually return to equilibrium.

In the absence of such a support network or sufficient distance, the dynamic will not stop. The violent party, convinced of their superiority and frustrated at not being able to exploit the dynamic for longer, will want more. Violence, and the sense of power it produces, is addictive. If they can no longer reach the victimized party in their immediate environment, they will do so through that person’s social circle —spreading rumors, rallying as many people as possible to their cause, positioning themselves as the victim. The violence becomes communal.

In a healthy community, mechanisms would exist to regulate such processes. The victimized party could draw from their social circle the additional strength needed to provide adequate counterweight to the violent party. The violent party would be brought back into balance by their own circle, or threatened with sanctions. Eventually, if the damage was relatively superficial, after both parties had stabilized, a process of mutual understanding — and perhaps even repair — could be envisioned.

Unfortunately, we do not live in healthy communities, but in a social environment that perpetuates violence and shame across the full breadth of human experience — domestic, geographic, and in working relationships. We have become isolated, inhibited, selfish, and/or full of shame in relation with ourselves. It is no surprise that the far right, which makes its business out of channeling violence and contempt toward marginalized social groups, is flourishing in the current context. Behind the social mechanisms — capitalism, colonialism, patriarchy — that fuel this system, one constant remains: the human propensity to maintain or consolidate one’s status, and to flee from suffering. Dehumanizing the other is simply a means among many to achieve that end. To my knowledge, there is only one remedy to this psychological cancer: connection, community, and love. In the current social and economic environment, opportunities for these are fragile — but not nonexistent. They must be protected and carefully tended.